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HIRI’s 2026 Home Improvement Insights Summit, held Sept. 29-30 in Minneapolis, addressed economic conditions, customer behavior, AI and sales channels. HIRI reported a forecast of 2.5% growth in the home improvement products market in current dollars in 2026, but a 1.5% decline after inflation.
The Home Improvement Research Institute’s 2026 Home Improvement Insights Summit brought industry leaders to Minneapolis on Sept. 29-30 to examine economic pressures, homeowner decisions, artificial intelligence and the outlook for home improvement spending. HIRI said its market forecast calls for 2.5% growth in current dollars in 2026, while the market is projected to shrink 1.5% after inflation—a difference that underscores the pressure rising costs place on the industry.
The summit organized its sessions around five themes: macroeconomics, the customer journey, data and market research, project spending and the sales channel. The program included speakers from the National Association of Home Builders, HIRI, OpenBrand, S&P Global, The Farnsworth Group and Houzz, along with Kevin O’Connor, host of This Old House.
Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington, assistant vice president for forecasting and analysis at the NAHB, discussed how inflation and other economic factors affect homebuilding and homebuying. She noted that the median age of a first-time homebuyer is 40, compared with 29 in 1981. HIRI’s Dave King also joined economists Ralph McLaughlin of OpenBrand and Michael Zdinak of S&P Global for a discussion of how affordability, mortgage rates and income affect buyers.
Sessions on the customer journey considered the roles of contractors and AI in influencing recommendations and preferences. Grant Farnsworth, president of The Farnsworth Group, presented findings from the organizations’ Q2 2026 contractor sentiment tracker and the Farnsworth Contractor Index for Q3. The index put contractors’ confidence in getting business over the next six months at 8.2 out of 10.
Houzz senior vice president of marketing Liza Hausman presented the company’s 2026 research, which found that 22% of homeowners use AI for renovation and that 25% of renovation dollars are associated with households using AI for help. The report does not specify in the supplied account how the spending figure was calculated or what tasks counted as AI assistance.
Inflation Changes the Market Picture
The forecast’s split between nominal and inflation-adjusted figures gives retailers, manufacturers and contractors two different views of the same market. Current-dollar growth of 2.5% signals that market spending is expected to rise in dollar terms, while the projected 1.5% real decline indicates that inflation-adjusted activity is expected to contract. Businesses planning inventory, staffing or investment need to account for both measures rather than treating nominal growth as a straightforward increase in demand.
The summit’s discussion of buyer affordability and income also connects broader economic conditions to project decisions. If household budgets and access to housing shape when people buy or renovate, home improvement demand may not move evenly across customer groups. The summit supplied indicators and forecasts, but did not establish how those factors will affect particular products, regions or companies.
AI’s reported presence in renovation planning is another signal for companies that depend on customer advice and product discovery. The figures suggest AI already plays a part in some household decisions, but they do not show that it has replaced contractors, retailers or other sources of guidance. The practical question for businesses is how to make recommendations useful and trustworthy as customers consult more tools.
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From Buyer Costs to Contractor Confidence
The summit’s sessions linked economic conditions to decisions made throughout the home improvement process, from buying a home to choosing whether and how to renovate. The reported increase in the median age of first-time buyers—from 29 in 1981 to 40 today—was presented by Nanayakkara-Skillington as part of a discussion about inflation and homebuying. The source account does not provide the calculation method or a specific survey date for that comparison.
Contractor sentiment offered a separate indicator of business expectations. The 8.2 out of 10 score measured confidence in securing business over the next six months, according to the Q3 Farnsworth Contractor Index presentation. It is a measure of reported confidence, not a count of jobs booked or a guarantee of future work.
HIRI’s Dave King closed the summit’s market discussion by referring to HIRI’s Q3 2026 Size of the Home Improvement Products Market Report and Forecast. Its 2026 projections provide the market backdrop for the speakers’ discussions of customer needs, economic uncertainty and business planning.
“Take uncertainty out of the customer’s decision in the coming quarter.”
— Dave King, HIRI
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Limits of the Reported Findings
The summit recap does not provide the full methodology, sample sizes or detailed tables behind the Houzz AI figures, contractor sentiment score or market forecast. It also does not identify which economic assumptions underpin HIRI’s 2026 projection. Readers therefore cannot assess from the recap alone how the estimates vary by product category, region or household type.
The figures describe different things: the 2.5% and negative 1.5% figures are market forecasts using different price treatments; the contractor score is a confidence measure; and the AI statistics describe reported household use and associated renovation spending. They should not be combined into a single measure of demand. The recap also does not establish whether AI use causes higher renovation spending or changes which professionals homeowners hire.
It remains unclear how economic conditions and consumer behavior will develop after the summit, or whether the forecasts will match actual 2026 results. The source account does not provide subsequent data or a revised forecast.
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Tracking the 2026 Market Outlook
The immediate next step for industry readers is to compare the summit’s outlook with subsequent market and business data. HIRI’s Q3 2026 market report and forecast is the cited basis for its 2026 growth projections; later releases and updated estimates will show whether the outlook changes as economic conditions evolve.
Companies can also watch for additional evidence on contractor demand and AI-assisted renovation, including whether confidence translates into booked work and how homeowners use AI during project planning. The summit recap does not announce a specific next release date or further summit milestone.
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Key Questions
When and where was HIRI’s 2026 summit held?
The Home Improvement Insights Summit took place in Minneapolis on Sept. 29-30, 2026.
What did HIRI forecast for the home improvement market in 2026?
HIRI’s cited forecast projected 2.5% growth in current dollars and a 1.5% decline after inflation. These are projections, not final reported results.
What did the summit report about AI and renovation?
Houzz’s 2026 research, presented by Liza Hausman, found that 22% of homeowners use AI for renovation and that 25% of renovation dollars sit in households using AI for help. The recap does not provide further methodology.
How confident were contractors about future business?
The Farnsworth Contractor Index for Q3 2026 put contractor confidence in getting business over the next six months at 8.2 out of 10. That is a confidence score, not a count of confirmed jobs.
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